UK employment slump underway

Hi everyone,

1.4 million people in the UK made a claim for universal credit in March, 400% higher than the average monthly figure. The increase dwarfs anything seen since the 1970's. The unemployment figure is expected to rise from 4% to 9% by the end of June.

144,000 companies applied for government support yesterday costing the taxpayer £1bn in one day. The Times expect the overall figure to be £40bn by the end of the scheme, helping around a third of the UK's workforce. The lockdown is expected to cause the economy to contract by 25% and not recover until 2022.

The Pound is down by around 1% today and has reached a 2-week low against most currencies. The plunge in oil prices have caused global stocks to fall and the Pound is suffering because of this. 

How the rest of the week plays out is impossible to predict as there is substantial and important data due out daily for the majors. Most figures released, are going to be horrible readings and so will hit all currencies involved. But, because of how the week has gone so far for the £ and the standstill performance of the last couple of weeks, I would expect it to fall more by the end of it.




Upcoming Data


Wednesday, 22nd April, 2020

06:00 UK - CPI, PPI & PRI
08:30 UK - House price index
09:00 EU - ECB conference on coronavirus
11:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:00 US - House price index
14:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence

Thursday, 23rd April, 2020

06:00 EU - German consumer confidence
06:00 UK - Public finances & borrowing
07:15 EU - French PMI
07:30 EU - German PMI
08:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
08:30 UK - PMI

12:30 US - Initial & continuing jobless claims
13:45 US - PMI

14:00 US - New home sales
23:00 UK - Consumer confidence

Friday, 24th April, 2020

00:00 UK - S&P's sovereign debt rating
00:00 EU - Italian sovereign debt rating
08:00 EU - German business climate & expectations
12:30 US - Durable goods



Dan Waterman
Sales Director



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