Summer of uncertainty for Sterling

Hi everyone,

£-€ rates suffered 5-straight days of losses last week, as no news came to light on cross-party talks or Theresa May's resignation. The Pound will struggle to sustain any upturn until we hear results on the above and £-$ rates will remain subdued with the continuing trade war with China. 

The European elections are expected to see a rise of far-right parties which could see the Euro weaken. The single currency has been very resilient of late after already being under pressure with economic concerns. The Pound is unlikely to perform overly well if the Brexit Party take the most votes, as this will unsettle £.

The saving grace for Sterling recently has been the UK's robust economic performance. The surprising results of consistent growth of jobs and wage increases, has lead to potential rate hikes for this year, which will be positive for the Pound. 

The important event we are awaiting is the news from the PM on her resignation date. This is because the new leader will almost certainly be inclined to opt for a 'Brexit at all costs' scenario. This is when we will next see some real market volatility and the downside risk to Sterling will be high. 




Upcoming Data


Tuesday, 14th May, 2019

06:00 EU - German CPI
08:30 UK - Jobless claims, unemployment change, average earnings
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone industrial production, German economic sentiment

12:30 US - Import/Export price index

Wednesday, 15th May, 2019

06:00 EU - German GDP
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & employment
11:00 US - Mortgage applications
12:30 US - Retail sales
13:15 US - Industrial production
14:00 US - Housing market index & business inventories

Thursday, 16th May, 2019

09:00 EU - Euro-Zone trade balance
12:30 US - Housing starts, building permits & jobless claims

Friday, 17th May, 2019

09:00 EU - Euro-Zone CPI
14:00 US - Leading index


Dan Waterman
Office Manager

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