One of the biggest weeks in UK politics has arrived

Hi everyone,

It is one hell of a week ahead and it starts with a very busy schedule today for Theresa May. The Prime Minister is hanging on to both her post and Brexit deal by the smallest of margins, as the Pound hangs in the balance.

She is currently debating 7 versions of what happens next with her cabinet, before giving a statement at 3:30. This is followed by a Brexit debate in the House of Commons at 5pm and then voting on amendments at around 10pm. It's almost certain Mrs May will not resign and so the only way she can be removed is if the Government is brought down. 

The EU have just released a statement confirming that "it is looking increasingly likely that the UK will leave the EU without a deal on April 12th." Then interestingly have mentioned "There is still a financial settlement to be done. Debts to be paid".

So on April 12th;

- There will either be a no-deal Brexit or an extension

- If MP's pass an extension;
Either no-deal, potential cancellation of Brexit or a further extension will follow

- If the latter;
Renegotiation, referendum or general election outcome

But even with all this uncertainty, the Pound remains relatively stable, which is something unheard of since the Brexit vote. It's not exactly clear why the markets have priced in the Pounds current position, but with no majority in government, we can only see weaker levels this week. The most likely outcome to win majority is a soft Brexit.

It's also an interesting week for the US with plenty of important economic data due out that could weaken the Dollar, so much to be on the lookout for this week!




Upcoming Data


Tuesday, 26th March, 2019

07:30 EU - German consumer confidence
07:45 EU - French GDP
09:30 UK - House purchase loans
12:30 US - Housing starts & building permits
13:00 US - House price index
14:00 US - Consumer confidence

Wednesday, 27th March, 2019

08:00 EU - ECB President Draghi conference
11:00 UK - Mortgage applications
12:30 US - Trade balance

Thursday, 28th March, 2019

00:00 UK - House price index
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone March confidence indicators
12:30 US - GDP, jobless claims & personal consumption
13:00 EU - German CPI
14:00 US - Pending home sales

Friday, 29th March, 2019

00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:00 EU - German retail sales
08:55 EU - German unemployment rate
09:00 UK - Consumer credit, mortgage approvals & GDP
12:30 US - Personal income/spending & consumption
14:00 US - New home sales


Dan Waterman
Office Manager

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