May faces leadership challenge


Hi everyone,
Sterling was pegged back across the board last week after no real Brexit progress was made. This week is one of the most important weeks in recent times, which could comfortably see 1-3% swings in the Pounds price. 

We have this morning dropped below the psychological barriers of £-€1.13 & £-$1.30, but this could easily be reverted and then some IF things go as forecast. 

Firstly, Theresa May faces a potential leadership challenge that judging by the UK media could go to the wire. Meetings with the Conservative MP's start tomorrow and end Thursday and if enough letters of no confidence are received, Sterling will tumble and the party will face a leadership contest putting all things Brexit at risk.

On Tuesday, Governor Carney gives his overview on the UK economy and Brexit will be a talking point. Wednesday there is a host of economic data being released, but it's Thursday that is the more important of the three days. 

The ECB are expected to keep rates unchanged, but as always it's the conference after that everyone will be watching. If Draghi strays from the Quantitative Easing & interest rate dates set, the € will fall and he is marginally forecast to do so. He will also have to address the Italian debt issue, that further down the line has the potential of crippling the single currency.

Upcoming Data
Tuesday, 23rd October, 2018

07:00 EU - German PPI
15:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence
16:20 UK - Carney conference

Wednesday, 24th October, 2018
08:15 EU - French PMI
08:30 EU - German PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
09:30 UK - Loans for house purchases
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
14:00 US - House price index
14:45 US - Markit PMI
15:00 US - New home sales
Thursday, 25th October, 2018

07:00 EU - German GFK & IFO figures
12:45 EU - ECB rate decision
13:30 US - Trade balance, durable goods & jobless claims
15:00 US - Pending home sales
Friday, 26th October, 2018

09:00 EU - ECB survey forecasts
13:30 US - GDP
15:00 EU - Draghi conference
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