GBP in recovery mode

 

Hi everyone,

 

It's been a good few weeks for Sterling and the trend suggests there may be more recovery to come. As the pace of Brexit negotiations speed up, the chances of a 'no-deal' begin to wane and all of a sudden the Pound is looking bullish.

Inflation this Wednesday is forecast to drop back to 2.4% and retail sales to show a contraction after July's surprise bounce. These results may dent Sterling's run slightly, but investors will only be on the lookout for any new Brexit developments.

Up and coming data from the UK looks set to continue to show sluggish results and are more at risk of a decline than growth. However, any economic data releases should not impact £ too much whilst Brexit negotiations are ongoing. There is likely to be no talk of an interest rate hike until Brexit happens and so Sterling's performance hinges on the terms of the divorce with the EU.

The bottom line for now is as the probability of a Brexit 'no-deal' diminish, the Pound will rise in value.

 

 

Upcoming Data

Tuesday, 18th September, 2018


08:15 EU - Mario Draghi conference
 

Wednesday, 19th September, 2018

 

09:30 UK - CPI, PPI & house price index
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:30 US - Housing starts
14:00 EU - Mario Draghi conference

Thursday, 20th September, 2018


09:30 UK - Retail sales
15:00 EU - Consumer confidence
15:00 US - Home sales

Friday, 21st September, 2018

07:45 EU - French GDP & PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone Markit figures
09:30 UK - Net borrowing
14:45 US - Markit figures

 

 

 

Dan Waterman

Office Manager

 
 

 

 
 
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