ECB was concerned about the exposure of some European banks to Turkey.

Overnight, EUR/USD dropped to its weakest level in a year (below 1.15) on concerns that the slide in the Turkish Lira would spill over onto European banks. The move also follows a hawkish assessment from one of the more-dovish members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, Evans. Speaking last night, he suggested that interest rates might need to rise a little above the Fed’s estimate of the neutral rate, particularly if inflation expectations move higher.

The Financial Times reported that the European Central Bank was concerned about the exposure of some European banks to Turkey. Turkey’s President Erdogan is expected to speak today in an attempt to calm nerves. Today’s focus will be on the preliminary estimate of Q2 UK GDP. Following the weak Q1 UK GDP print, the recovery in both the survey and ‘hard’ data for the second quarter suggests that the slowdown in the first quarter was temporary and likely weather related. 

Recently, the ONS changed the way it produces its GDP statistics, switching from a quarterly measure to a rolling monthly one. As a result, monthly GDP data for April and May are already known, while today’s report provided an estimate of June activity, thus completing the picture for the second quarter. 

The actual figure released at 9:30am was a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP in June, which is constant with growth of 0.4% over Q2, in line with the BoE’s forecast.

In the US, we expect the July CPI report to show a further acceleration in the headline rate of annual inflation to 3.0%, driven by increases in energy prices. The ‘core’ rate, however, is expected to hold steady at 2.3%.

Upcoming Key Data  (Friday)

Friday, 10th Aug, 2018.

18:30 US - CPI & average earnings
19:00 US - Monthly budget

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