Daily report Report 28th September.

Yesterday markets have largely ignored the upside risk to Eurozone inflation following the German numbers and have instead focused more on Italian government’s budget tussles. The Italian government agreed a budget deficit target of 2.4% of GDP for 2019, higher than finance minister Tria wanted. The announcement of a larger-than-expected budget deficit target weighed on the Euro and has led to wider Italian spreads at the open this morning. 

UK consumer confidence, as measured by the GfK survey, fell by 2 points to -9, led by lower expectations of personal finances and the wider economy. The Lloyds Business Barometer, however, showed a rebound in confidence to 29, after moving lower in August to 23.

The Bank of England’s Haldane said yesterday that it can no longer afford to run the economy hot and that growth at the current pace would need more interest rate hikes. It’s the turn of his MPC colleague Ramsden today, who is scheduled to speak on monetary policy at 14:20BST. This morning’s UK Q2 GDP release is expected to be un-revised at 0.4%. The BoE recently revised up its ‘nowcast’ for Q3 GDP growth to 0.5%.

In the US, many are looking for a rise in both personal spending and income by 0.4% in August. Retail sales were softer in August, which may pose some downside risks to broader spending.

Upcoming Key Data

Friday, September 28

08:55  EUR German Unemployment data.
09:30  GBP Gross Domestic Product.
10:00  EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index.
13:30  USD Personal Consumption Data.

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