Daily Report 30/11/2018
Good afternoon all,
The media has reported that up to 100 Conservative MP's will vote against the PM’s Brexit deal, leaving it a complete non-starter. PM May still has time to convince her MP's, but this is becoming even more unlikely after news broke yesterday that PM May has ruled out a Norway-style deal as a back-up plan if the government lose the vote in the House of Commons. PM May and the leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn will have a televised one-hour Brexit debate on Sunday December 9th, just two days before the vote in Parliament. If PM May’s proposal is rejected, the Brexit negotiations may take another turn for the worse, impacting the value of Sterling.
In case you missed it. We've highlighted a number of possible scenarios if or when PM May's deal fails to get through parliament on the 11th of December. If you are looking at making an exchange in the next two months then it's a must read......
Political reporter Natasha Clark wrote today that under plans discussed in European capitals, the EU could be prepared to extend Article 50 and put off Brexit until JULY next year to allow time for another vote, or to seal a Norway-style soft Brexit. As deadlock in Parliament draws nearer, the EU has said it could act to give time for MP's to come to a conclusion about what they want from Brexit, The Times reported. But Mrs May ruled out that this morning, even though some of her own Cabinet ministers are considering it if her deal gets thrown out. 100 Tory MPs have raised their opposition to the deal - and she could lose the vote by up to 200 MPs, one Cabinet minister speculated.
Yesterday the PM was asked about whether it was possible to extend Article 50 and have another referendum on Brexit. And ex-education secretary Justine Greening said one could be held as early as next May. But she slapped it down, saying it would re-open her whole deal again, and could throw it all into chaos. She told MP's on the Commons liaison committee: "What is clear is that any extension to Article 50 reopens the negotiations and reopens the deal and at that point the deal can go frankly in any direction. "This is the deal that we have negotiated with the EU." She said that talks are not able to be re-opened, and she would not go back to Brussels even if her deal is torpedoed.
Any client thinking of holding off making exchanges until March next year will need to rethink their position as there is now a very real possibility of Brexit not happening by the end of March.
Finally, over the weekend the international trade tensions are expected to occupy the centre of discussions at the G20 leaders’ summit (30th-1st). Both President Trump and Chinese leader Xi have indicated a willingness to negotiate on trade, while recent financial market volatility may also encourage a compromise. Markets will be looking for at least some sign of progress, though Larry Kudlow (an economic adviser to President Trump’s) counselled against expecting major breakthroughs.