Daily Report 24/08/2018

Good morning everyone,

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, published yesterday the first 24 no deal planning papers being prepared by the government telling businesses and organisations what they need to do to get ready for the possibility of a no deal Brexit. More than 50 more are due to be published in the next few weeks. 

In a speech, Raab stressed that this was just contingency planning and that the government remains confident that there will be a deal. The exercise is designed to reassure a British audience that the UK could cope in the event of a no deal Brexit, and to convince Brussels that Theresa May is willing to walk away if she is not offered a satisfactorily deal. But the documents may have highlighted the weakness of the government’s case because many organisations - for example, the Scottish government, the Welsh government, the CBI and the TUC, have said the papers just illustrate why a no deal Brexit would be unacceptable. 

Overnight the US dollar moved slightly lower as markets wait for the update on US monetary policy from the Fed’s Powell. Comments from a couple of other Fed policymakers that pointed to the likelihood of further interest rate increases this year failed to support the ‘greenback’. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar moved up after the confirmation of Morrison’s appointment. Stronger than expected retail spending data in the UK provided a near term boost to Sterling yesterday, although the focus in markets still remains primarily on Brexit developments. This was noticeable yesterday afternoon after as GBP/EUR fell below €1.11 and it currently testing a strong support level of €1.1080. 

Today’s economic data releases are unlikely to have much impact on markets. The British Banking Association’s July estimate of UK housing finance loans will provide a preview of next week’s more comprehensive Bank of England data. It may show a small fall compared to June. 

In the US, durable goods orders for July are expected to be pulled down by the volatile aerospace sector. However, ‘core’ orders are expected to show another solid rise, suggesting that manufacturing activity remains buoyant.

Upcoming Key Data  (Friday 24th Aug)


Friday
07:00 EU - German GDP
13:30 US - Durable goods
15:00 US - FED & MPC meeting

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