Daily Report 22nd of November 2018 + Brexit News
Good morning everyone,
PM Theresa May was in Brussels yesterday and she is scheduled to return there on Saturday to finalise a deal on the outline of a future trading relationship with the EU. That, together with the Withdrawal Agreement, is expected to be signed off at a special EU-27 summit on Sunday.
Market activity is likely to slow, with the US out of action for Thanks Giving today with only ECB minutes worthy of particular noteThe only scheduled UK event is a speech from Bank of England MPC member Michael Saunders this evening at an annual CBI economics dinner in the South West. At the Treasury Select Committee earlier this week, Mr Saunders noted that economic growth is set to slow after a strong Q3, but that pay growth is picking up due to a tight labour market.
The euro area focus will be the publication at 12:30GMT of the minutes of the last ECB policy meeting on 25 October, when policy settings were left unchanged. The minutes are expected to mention increasing downside risks to growth, related to the rise in global trade tensions. Domestic demand, however, continues to be supported by low interest rates and jobs growth, which underpins the forecast for a sustained rise in inflation and therefore some withdrawal of policy stimulus.
Sticking to the Euro zone and after the EU Commission took it's first step toward imposing fines on Italy for violating EU debt rules, eyes will now shift to the EU's governments, which have two weeks to endorse a report by the EU’s executive arm, clearing the way for a disciplinary process that could start in January. Italian Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini gave his EU peers little respite yesterday by sticking to his guns on the populist government’s spending spree.
Brexit negotiators are back to all-nighters to keep Sunday’s summit on track after talks between European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May last night in Brussels failed to break the deadlock. As the frantic dealings continue, May plans a last-minute return trip on Saturday, hoping to resolve any outstanding issues in time to salvage a crunch summit aimed at rubber stamping a deal. Even if she succeeds, a bigger battle looms in the British Parliament. Officials had warned that if the text wasn’t ready by Thursday morning, the summit was at risk. the EU’s two most powerful countries, Germany and France, are divided over the Sunday summit. While Merkel refused to attend unless the deal is already sealed, French President Emmanuel Macron wants the opportunity to discuss the text himself, rather than leave it to lower-level officials, diplomats with knowledge of the discussions said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear she wouldn’t go to Brussels on Sunday unless the deal was ready to sign. A handful of tricky issues remain outstanding in the 20-page outline of the future trade and security agreement between Britain and the EU. These include the future of Gibraltar, over which Spain wants a say, fishing rights, and security.