Daily Market Report 21st September.
Good morning everyone,
Overnight ECB chief economist Praet talked about the increasing importance of its forward guidance beyond the first rate hike. In the UK, former Brexit Secretary David Davis said that up to 40 Tory MPs were willing to vote against the PM’s plans, although that may risk a second referendum and Brexit uncertainty hits Sterling exchange rates as Salzburg meeting ends with less hope of deal than it began with.
The resulting moves in Sterling is a notable move lower in mid-morning trade in London as traders grow increasingly nervous of a 'no deal' Brexit come end of March 2019. The less than constructive meeting of the European Council in Salzburg, Austria where leader after leader lined up to reject important elements of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequer's deal. Furthermore and a little more worrying, leaders appear more willing to entertain a 'no deal' Brexit with European Commission President Juncker saying the Commission are prepared for a 'no deal'.
The afternoon session sees the release of US Markit manufacturing and services PMI surveys, as well as Canadian retail sales and CPI inflation. Canadian CPI jumped unexpectedly to 3.0% in July from 2.5%, and now sits at the top end of the Bank of Canada’s 1-3% target range. However, that was likely due in part to transitory factors, and it is forecast to fall back to 2.8% in August. Overall, the Bank of Canada looks set to raise interest rates by 25bps to 1.75% next month.