Brexit talks enter the last day

Hi everyone,

Wow what a couple of days it has been and let's start with what happened yesterday.

A Bloomberg news report suggesting the UK & EU were close to agreeing a draft Brexit deal, pushed the Pound up over 1% across the board. Traders jumped on the report and cemented Sterling's new position even higher. 'Cautious optimism' was the noise from other media sources and Reuters predicting an imminent deal was "way too premature". However, this did little to dent the surge and yesterdays trading belonged to the Pound.

Onto this morning then where plenty has already taken place and here are the headlines - 

Hopes of Brexit deal fades as new hurdles emerge
EU officials claim 2-month extension is needed
Government admits it could request Brexit delay

So we know negotiations went through the night and that the DUP are not happy with Johnson's deal. Today, both sides will work on legal text which suggests the outlines of a deal and will be published to EU leaders tomorrow to debate. It seems all is resting on the DUP's assessment. If they go with the deal, an orderly Brexit on the 31st becomes almost certain. If not, the deal is dead and we enter the unknown. 

The mood music has certainly changed this morning and already today there has been huge swings. The market opened at £-€1.1570 & £-$1.2780 and just half an hour later we were down to £-€1.1470 & £-$1.2650.

The market is currently experiencing it's third highest peak of volatility in the last 12 years. Only the Brexit vote and recession has caused more market swings. We will send another crucial Brexit update to you all tomorrow and good luck to those adopting a 'wait and see' plan of action.




Upcoming Data


Wednesday, 16th October, 2019

12:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:30 US - Retail sales
14:00 UK - Governor Carney IMF event

15:00 US - Business inventories
19:00 US - FED releases beige book
23:00 UK - Governor Carney Havard event 

Thursday, 17th October, 2019

09:30 UK - BoE liabilities & credit conditions & retail sales
10:30 EU - Euro-Zone construction
13:30 US - Building permits, jobless claims
14:15 US - Industrial & manufacturing production 

Friday, 18th October, 2019

00:00 UK - Sovereign debt
15:00 US - Leading index
18:45 UK - Governor Carney speaks in Washington


Dan Waterman
Office Manager



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