Brexit deal agreed with EU

Hi everyone,


After 18 months of playing cat and mouse, a compromise has finally been agreed between the UK & EU. Huge news and we are one step closer to Brexit, but why hasn't the rate spiked?

Simply because at this stage, Theresa May doesn't have the numbers to pass her deal through parliament. So Sterling for now is in a bit of limbo with months of uncertainty ahead.

A provisional vote is scheduled in parliament for the 12th of December, the outcome of this will determine where the Pound is headed near term and with an initial 2-3% gain or drop across the board. There will be plenty of noise leading up to this vote, which will no doubt cause huge volatility. 

Theresa May will now sell her deal to the country, which has just been made even harder by French President Macron's recent fishery comments, effectively suggesting the French must have access to UK waters or risk being in a permanent customs union. Spain also have been flexing their muscles over Gibraltar, both situations put the UK in powerless positions in the second round of negotiations. 

A quiet week as usual for the UK (data-wise), as we approach the end of the month. Consensus for now is looking negative for the £, so if there are trades in the pipeline you should consider current levels to exchange. 

 

 

 

Upcoming Data

 

Tuesday, 27th November, 2018


14:00 US - House price index
15:00 US - Consumer confidence
 

Wednesday, 28th November, 2018

 

00:00 UK - Nationwide house price
07:00 UK - BoE financial stability and stress tests
12:00 EU - German consumer confidence
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:30 US - GDP & trade balance
15:00 US - New home sales
17:00 US - Fed's Powell conference
 

Thursday, 29th November, 2018


07:45 EU - French GDP
08:55 EU - German unemployment
09:30 UK - Consumer credit and mortgage approvals
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence
13:00 EU - German CPI
13:30 US - Personal income & spending, home sales & jobless claims
19:00 US - FOMC meeting
 

Friday, 30th November, 2018


00:00 UK - GFK Consumer confidence
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone CPI
11:00 EU - Italian GDP

 
 
 

Dan Waterman
Office Manager

 
 
 
 
 
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