Another difficult week ahead for the Pound

Hi everyone,

Sterling starts the week in the red, as the Tory leadership battle heats up. The outsider Hunt, has expressed he will delay Brexit if circumstances dictate and allow for a more softer one. The FX market would prefer to see Hunt as the new PM, but Johnson is still clear favourite at 80% probability. 

The Pound fell sharply on Friday after decisive statements from EU leaders saying that there would be no renegotiating of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. On the data-front, the US have a huge week ahead with Friday being the day of volatility for £, € & $.

The probability of a general election being held in August has risen to 35% and this will rise quickly if/when Boris becomes the new prime minister. This is because there is no appetite for a no-deal Brexit amongst MP's, which would bring us to another stalemate, a general election and downward spiral for Sterling.

The uncertainty surrounding the UK at the moment, is making £ an unattractive prospect for investors, further hurting the Pounds already precarious position. This is unlikely to change in the days/weeks and possibly months to come.




Upcoming Data


Tuesday, 25th June, 2019

13:00 US - House price index
14:00 US - New home sales & consumer confidence

Wednesday, 26th June, 2019

06:00 EU - German consumer confidence
08:30 UK - Loans for house purchases
09:15 UK - Governor Carney conference 
11:00 US - Mortgage applications
12:30 US - Durable goods, wholesale inventories & trade balance

Thursday, 27th June, 2019

09:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence
12:00 EU - German CPI
12:30 US - GDP, jobless claims & personal consumption
14:00 US - Pending home sales
23:00 UK - Consumer confidence 

Friday, 28th June, 2019

00:00 UK - Nationwide house price index
06:00 EU - German import price index
08:30 UK - GDP, total business investment & current account balance
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone CPI
12:30 US - Personal income/spending, core & deflator figures


Dan Waterman
Office Manager

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