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Weekly Forecast: 9th Apr 2018
There isn’t much due out today for the UK today, with some key official data releases due on Wednesday, including industrial production, external trade and construction output – all for February. A timelier gauge of economic activity and potential impact of the snow will come from the British Retail Consortium’s retail sales figures for March, which will be released in the early hours of tomorrow. Last week’s PMI surveys provided evidence that the unusually cold weather adversely affected activity in the construction and services sectors, raising the risk that Q1 GDP growth may be marginally weaker than Q4.
In the Eurozone, there may be see some interest in the Eurozone Sentix investor survey, as it is an early gauge of sentiment for April. The market consensus forecast is for a fall in overall index to 20.8 from 24.0, which would be the third consecutive decline. In light of recent negative data surprises in the Eurozone and potential implications for the monetary policy outlook, more attention may be reserved for ECB speakers this week. Today, scheduled speakers include the ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio and Chief Economist Peter Praet.
With an empty US calendar today, attention will be on the publication of the minutes of the 21 March Fed meeting (when interest rates were raised to 1.75%) and the March CPI inflation figures – both due on Wednesday. Many anticipate base effects will lead to an above-consensus rise in annual CPI to 2.5% from 2.2%.
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