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BoE, ECB Meeting & NIESR GDP Estimate

A busy day in the economic calendar with both the BoE and ECB expected to leave interest rates unchanged this month. ECB governor Trichet will outline his committee's thinking in the early afternoon press conference, but it will be another two weeks before it is known whether any other MPC member may have joined Andrew Sentance in voting for tighter policy in the UK. We expect both central banks to maintain the status quo until 2011, but at the BoE the debate over the appropriate level of the Bank rate and size of the QE program is likely to get more heated as the year progresses. In terms of hard data, the UK industrial production release should show that output expanded modestly in May, while a monthly GDP measure from NIESR will provide a first estimate of Q2 growth. We expect to see a more upbeat set of industrial production numbers out of Germany, which continues to outperform. the 4-day rally in EUR/GBP was halted yesterday but participants hesitate to show commitment to short the cross ahead of the CB meetings and Trichet’s press conference. The rally in EUR/USD cannot be ignored but until 1.2800-50 is reached, we doubt whether there is a lot more mileage in the 5-big figure bounce from 1.2152. For EUR/GBP, a pullback to 0.8255 is required to re-establish the downward channel. This may be asking a lot if Trichet manages to allay liquidity and funding concerns.

Today’s main event is the ECB meeting. We do not expect any changes in rates and the statement will probably be very similar to last month’s statement. The Q&A session will centre on the ECB’s bond purchase programme, what the ECB thinks about the tighter situation in the money markets, and the coming stress tests of European banks. Markets will continue to be driven by risk appetite and focus today will be to see if markets can hang on to the gains seen yesterday. For the FX market, the focal point will be ECB comments regarding further liquidity measures. The market might also be looking for clues as to whether the ECB will be ready to move to outright quantitative easing like the Fed and BoE if the economy weakens further.  The market will also use the day to scrutinise the bank stress test methodology that was released overnight ahead of the important 23 July stress test release

US Session

The economic docket for the US is relatively light for the dollar over the coming 24 hours. That being said, both the ICSC Chain Store Sales reading for June and consumer credit report for May are meaningful indicators. Both pertain to consumer spending, which is the foundation for economic activity in the US; and the credit report is useful in assessing the financial situation. While these indicators may not have the clout of an NFPs or durable goods orders number, they are critical to performance and better at gauging long-term trends. Another potential but unusual catalyst for the dollar is the outcome of the ECB decision tomorrow. Ignoring the rate decision, renewing the sovereign bond purchasing program or changing lending facility targets could drive the euro and the dollar in turn.

EMEA Region

Hungary’s industrial production in May surprised on the upside when it increased by 13.7% y/y, up from 9.7% y/y in April. The better-than-expected outcome confirmed that the recovery in industrial production is ongoing. Nonetheless, one should not get too excited, as to a large extent the result was influenced by the positive base effect. Looking ahead, the falling Hungarian PMI (now below the critical 50 level) and global sentiment indicators suggest that we will most likely see a slowdown in industrial production in H2. Czech retail sales came out better than expected, increasing by 3.1% y/y in May, up from April’s -4.5% y/y. Car sales were the main driver behind the strong figures. Despite this positive outcome, we nonetheless prefer to remain cautious, as high unemployment and further fiscal restrictions will prevent private consumption from making a full recovery this year. Estonian inflation continued rising in June. June’s CPI increased by 3.5% y/y, up from May’s 3.0% y/y. We could be heading for another sell-off in the EMEA markets, especially ZAR and HUF, which both look very poor, with broad-based negative scores.